1일부터 LTV·DTI 완화…아파트 가격 얼마나 오를까
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국책연구원 내부 보고서에 따르면 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 수도권 주택가격은 DTI 규제 여부에 따라 상승과 하락을 반복하는 패턴을 보였다.
글로벌 금융위기가 본격화된 2008년 11월 정부는 강남 3구 이외 지역을 투기지역에서 해제했다. 당시 투기지역에는 DTI 40~60% 규제가 적용되고 있었는데 이게 풀린 것이다.
그 영향으로 주택가격은 2009년 4월 상승세로 반전한다.
수도권 주택가격 상승 추세가 이어지자 정부는 2009년 9월 DTI 규제를 적용했고 곧바로 주택가격은 하향세로 전환됐다. 주택거래 위축이 심화되자 정부는 주택거래 활성화를 위해 2010년 8월 강남 3구를 제외하고 2011년 3월 말까지 한시적으로 DTI 규제를 폐지했고 주택가격은 다시 회복세로 전환됐다. 이후 2011년 3월 DTI 규제가 부활하자 수도권 주택가격은 다시 하향세를 보였다.
한마디로 금융위기 이후 DTI를 풀고 조일 때마다 주택가격이 변곡점을 찍고 방향을 트는 모습을 보인 셈이다.
국책연구원 관계자는 "주택가격뿐만 아니라 거래량도 DTI와 취득세 감면 종료 시점과 긴밀하게 맞물려서 늘어났다 줄었다를 반복하는 패턴을 보였다"며 "과거 경험에 비춰보면 이번 DTI 완화 조치로 적어도 서울지역 아파트 가격은 상승세로 전환될 가능성이 높다"고 말했다.
수도권 DTI 규제를 추가적으로 10%포인트 완화하면 주택가격은 연간 0.5% 상승 효과를 일으키고 주택거래는 연간 2만5000가구가 추가 증가하는 효과가 있다는 연구 결과도 있다.
다만 이번 DTI 한도 인상 조치 혜택이 수도권 전체가 아니라 서울지역에만 국한되는 점, 수도권에서는 여전히 공급 과잉 우려가 상존한다는 점, 또 DTI와 LTV를 한도까지 늘려서 대출을 받아 주택에 투자하는 사람은 무주택자 등 실수요자가 아니라 다주택자 등 투자 목적으로 한 채 더 구입하려는 사례가 많다는 점에서 강남 재건축단지와 서울 역세권 소형 아파트가 주로 혜택을 볼 것이라는 분석이 나온다.
또 지역과 대출 만기, 가격 등 조건에 따라 50~60%가 적용되던 LTV 한도가 70%로 일괄 상향 조정되면서 6억원 이상 수도권 고가 아파트들이 최대 수혜를 받을 전망이다.
부동산114 측은 강남 재건축단지들에 대해 기존에는 전세보증금과 주택담보대출을 합산해도 대출 한도 부족으로 매입하지 못하는 단지가 많았지만 변경된 LTV를 적용하면 상당수 단지가 전세를 끼고 재건축 아파트를 매입하는 게 가능하다는 분석을 내놨다.
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