"임대차 선진화 방향성 공감…월세시장 충격 우려"
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하지만 임대인의 경우 월세소득 노출로 졸지에 임대 소득세를 내야 하는 '날벼락'이 예상되면서 임대시장에 미치는 부작용도 적지 않을 것으로 전문가들은 우려한다.
당장 전·월세 불안이라는 '급한 불'을 끄는 데에 한계가 있다는 지적도 나오고 있다.
◇ 월세입자 지원, 소득 과세 방향성 '공감' 전문가들은 일단 월세 세입자의 세 부담을 줄여주고, 월세 임대소득에 대한 과세를 강화하는 것은 장기적으로 바람직하다는 의견이 많다.
김선덕 건설산업전략연구소장은 "지금까지 세입자에 대한 월세 소득공제가 있었지만 집주인이 사실상 허용하지 않아 원천봉쇄된 측면이 있었다"며 "이번 세액공제 시행으로 혜택의 범위가 넓어짐에 따라 소득공제를 요구하는 세입자가 많아질 것"이라고 말했다.
김 소장은 "현재 임대차 시장은 철저히 사적 영역에서 이뤄지다 보니 여러 가지 부작용이 많았다"며 "준공공임대 사업자에 대한 세제혜택을 강화해 임대시장을 사업자 중심으로 재편하면서 간접적인 전·월세 상한제 효과도 기대할 수 있을 것"이라고 덧붙였다.
함영진 부동산114 리서치센터장은 "월세 소득공제에 대해 3년 내 경정청구를 활용하면 세입자의 권리가 높아지고 집주인은 사후에 뒤통수를 맞을 수 있다는 불안감 때문에 떳떳하게 임대사업자로 등록하겠다는 수요가 많아질 것"이라고 지적했다.
권주안 주택산업연구원 선임연구원은 "임대차 시장이 임대사업자 중심으로 기업화되면 시장을 좀 더 효율적으로 통제할 수 있다"며 "임대차시장이 월세 중심으로 바뀌는 상황에서 임대시장을 육성하고 적절한 인프라를 구축하겠다는 기본 방향은 중장기적으로 올바르다"고 평가했다.
◇ 임대인 불만 확산, 급격한 양성화 부작용 지적도 반면 월세 소득자의 세원 노출이 가속화되면서 단기적으로 시장에 미치는 충격파를 우려하는 목소리도 적지 않다.
그동안 월세 수입이 있어도 임대사업자로 등록하지 않고 임대 소득세도 내지 않았던 대다수 임대인의 타격이 불가피하게 됐다.
특히 월세가 유일한 수입원이던 베이비붐 세대 은퇴자들은 소득 감소 등에 따른 타격으로 불만이 커질 전망이다.
박원갑 국민은행 부동산전문위원은 "오랜 기간 음성화돼 있던 월세소득을 양성화하면서 주택임대사업이 '클린화'되는 효과가 예상되나 당장 집주인들에게는 충격이 클 것"이라며 "단기적으로 전·월세 물량이 부족한 곳은 소득세 부담을 월세에 전가하거나 일부 소액 월세는 전세로 돌리려는 움직임도 나타날 수 있다"고 말했다.
박 전문위원은 "그동안 임대사업자의 95% 이상이 소득세를 안 냈는데 이번 정부 대책으로 과세 대상에 포함될 가능성이 커졌다"며 "생각보다 시장의 충격이 클 것"이라고 말했다.
장성수 주거복지연대 전문위원도 "정부의 취지는 좋지만 월세를 놓는 사람이 반드시 경제적으로 여유 있는 계층은 아닌데 갑작스레 과세를 하면 반발이 나올 수밖에 없다"며 "서민을 살리는 정책이 되레 서민을 피곤하게 만들 수 있다"고 지적했다.
장 전문위원은 "월세 과세는 한꺼번에 칼을 빼들면 거부감만 키우고 임대시장을 더욱 위축시킬 것"이라며 "시장이 연착륙할 수 있도록 차근차근 진행하는 게 바람직하다"고 말했다.
일각에서는 임대사업을 장려한다는 정부 의도와 달리 세원 노출을 꺼린 다주택자들이 임대사업을 포기하는 사례도 나올 것으로 보고 있다.
실제 서울 강북과 용인에 85㎡ 2가구를 월세주고 있는 주부 김모(69)씨는 이번에 소득세가 부과될까 봐 노심초사하고 있다.
김씨는 "가뜩이나 월세 이율이 떨어져 수입도 많지 않은데 세금까지 내고 나면 세입자들 관리로 고생하는 보람이 없다"며 "집을 팔아야 할지 심각하게 고민 중"이라고 말했다.
김종필 세무사는 "작년부터 임대 소득세를 투명화하자는 의견이 나오면서 집주인들이 집을 팔아야 하는 게 아니냐며 걱정을 많이 했다"면서 "준공공임대사업자 등록을 했을 때와 집을 팔고 현금성 자산이나 다른 부동산에 투자했을 때를 비교해보고 임대사업을 중단할 가능성도 있다"고 말했다.
박원갑 전문위원은 "주택을 포기하고 종전부터 비교적 투명하게 과세해 온 상가 쪽으로 투자자들이 몰릴 수 있다"고 내다봤다.
또 월세 소득을 낮추려고 계약서 상의 월세를 낮춰 신고하거나 이면계약이 성행하는 등 임대시장의 음성화를 더욱 부추길 것이라는 지적도 있다.
◇ 단기 전·월세 시장 안정에는 '글쎄' 이번 선진화 방안이 서민의 주거안정을 위협하는 전·월세 불안을 단기적으로 해소하는 데에는 역부족이라고 평가한다.
함영진 센터장은 "정부가 전세보증금에 대해서도 과세를 하겠다는 입장인 만큼 전세 임대업자들도 월세로 많이 전환할 것으로 보인다"며 "이번 방안과 맞물려 생각보다 월세 패러다임을 가속할 가능성이 있다"고 지적했다.
임대사업용 리츠 역시 운용수익을 내 투자자에게 수익을 배당하는 구조여서 월세 물량이 늘어나는 효과가 있다.
권주안 연구원은 "임대차 시장을 이런 식으로 손대는 것은 사상 처음이어서 정착되기까지 시행착오가 필요할 것으로 본다"며 "임대사업 등은 아직 걸음마 단계에 있는 산업이라 정부가 지금 그리는 그림까지 도달하는 데에는 시간이 걸릴 것"이라고 예상했다.
정책 실효성을 높이기 위해 세밀한 장치가 뒷받침돼야 한다는 의견도 나왔다.
권주안 연구원은 "기본적으로 임대인과 임차인의 계약은 사인 간의 거래로 국가가 강제할 수는 없는데 이번 대책에는 임대인의 임대사업자 등록을 유도할 인센티브가 부족하다"고 말했다.
주택기금과 민간참여를 통해 임대주택 리츠를 활성화하는 방안에는 긍정적인 평가가 많았다.
김선덕 소장은 "리츠는 사업성만 있으면 귀신같이 들어온다"며 "역세권 도시형 생활주택, 오피스텔 등 수익성 있는 소규모 개발 등은 리츠가 뛰어들 여건이 충분할 것으로 본다"고 말했다.
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