85㎡이하 생애최초대상 중소형아파트가 "대세"
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연말까지 공유형모기지, 세금감면 기반으로 대세는 "중소형"
2011년 4월이후 30개월 만에 상승세로 돌아선 수도권 9월 아파트 매매시장을 분석한 결과, 전용면적 85㎡ 중소형이 가격상승의 주인공으로 나타났다.
특히 서울 강남지역과 용산 등 일부 고급주거지를 제외하고는 수도권에 위치한 전용면적 85㎡이하의 대부분이 6억 원 이하 매매가격을 형성하고 있어 1%대 공유형모기지를 노린 생애최초 대상자의 수요증가 효과를 톡톡히 본 것으로 분석된다.
지난 10월 1일 선착순 접수한 1%대 대출상품 공유형모기지가 시작 54분만에 모두 마감했다.
이러한 사실에 미뤄볼 때 전용85㎡이하 주택을 사전에 미리 계약한 생애최초 대상자가 상당한 숫자임을 짐작할 수 있다.
국토교통부는 시범대상 3000호에 대한 효과와 문제점을 분석해 물량 확대 여부를 검토한다는 계획이다.
한편, 중소형아파트는 공유형모지기 외에 양도세와 취득세 등 세금감면도 가능해, 당분간 전용85㎡이하 생애최초대상 중소형아파트는 주택시장의 "대세"가 될 전망이다.
서울 - 9월 가격 상승한 13개 구(총 25개 구임) 모두 중소형이 주도
서울의 9월 매매가격 변동률은 0.07%로 2011년 3월 이후 31개월 만에 상승세를 나타냈다.
이 중 상승세가 실제로 나타난 면적은 전용면적 85㎡ 초과면적을 제외한 전용면적 85㎡이하의 중소형 아파트다.
특히 9월에 서울에서 상승세가 나타난 구는 총25개 구 중 13개 구로 ▲강남(0.13%) ▲강동(0.15%) ▲강북(0.02%) ▲강서(0.03%) ▲노원(0.03%) ▲도봉(0.01%) ▲동대문(0.13%) ▲마포(0.06%) ▲성동(0.07%) ▲성북(0.05%) ▲송파(0.3%) ▲양천(0.06%) ▲중랑(0.09%) 등으로 강남, 강동, 송파 등 강남 지역에서도 뚜렷한 중소형의 강세현상이 두드러지는 상황이다.
예를 들어 강남구의 경우 전용60㎡ 소형의 경우 0.97%의 높은 상승세를 나타냈지만 중대형은 -0.06%로 마이너스를 기록하고 있다.
또한 송파구와 마포, 성북, 강북 등 상승세가 나타난 주요 구의 대부분이 이러한 모양새를 나타내고 있다.
경기,인천 - 수도권 3개지역 모두 상승세, 2009년 9월 이후 48개월 만
서울을 제외한 경기도와 인천의 9월 매매가격 변동률은 각각 0.06%, 0.14%로, 서울을 포함한 수도권 3개지역이 모두 상승세를 나타낸 것은 2009년 9월 이후 48개월만에 처음이다.
게다가 서울과 마찬가지로 경기도와 인천의 매매가격 상승세 또한 전용면적 85㎡이하 중소형 아파트가 이끌고 있다.
특히 수도권 3개 지역 모두에서 전용면적 60㎡이하>60~85㎡이하>85㎡초과의 면적이 작은 순서대로 매매가격 상승률이 높게 나타나고 있으므로 주목할 필요가 있다.
과거의 고점 대비 많이 하락한 물건은 중대형이다.
하지만 절대적인 상승률이 중소형보다 낮게 나타나는 것은 중대형에 대한 투자수요가 시장 내 상당한 수준까지 위축됐다고 볼 수 있기 때문이다.
1인~2인가구가 급증하는 인구구조 변화나 관리비의 비효율성, 세금부담 등 여러 가지 문제점에 노출돼 있는 중대형의 시대가 지고 있다고 볼 수 있다.
완연한 중소형의 시대흐름이 도래했다는 점에 투자자와 실수요자 모두 주목해야 한다.
공유형모기지와 세금감면 효과를 기반으로 대세는 "중소형"
공유형모기지라는 1%대 장기 저리대출과 양도세, 취득세의 감면이 모두 가능한 전용면적 85㎡이하 중소형아파트의 인기는 앞으로도 계속될 전망이다.
게다가 정책 효과에 더해 1인~2인 가구의 증가로 대형에 대한 수요층이 크게 줄어드는 시대흐름으로 보면, 단기적으로나 장기적으로나 실수요가 아닌 투자로서의 가치는 대형이 중소형을 넘어서기 어려울 것으로 보인다.
현재 정부의 4.1대책과 8.28대책에 힘입어 수도권 아파트 매매가격이 4주 연속 오르는 등 주택시장 분위기가 호전되고 있다.
하지만 양도세와 취득세 면제에 대한 일몰기간이 올해 12월까지, 3개월 밖에 남지 않으므로 생애최초주택구입처럼 혜택이 집중되는 대상자들은 올해 안에 적절한 주택마련 시점을 따져 볼 필요가 있다.
취득세는 금년 말까지 잔금납부를 마쳐야 면제혜택을 받을 수 있어 서두를 필요가 있고, 양도세 면제는 금년 말까지 계약금을 지급한 주택의 경우 혜택이 가능하므로 다소 여유가 있는 상황이다.
따라서 1년 안에 내 집 마련 계획이 확실한 수요자라면, 세금감면과 장기 저리대출(국토부의 공유형모기지 물량확대 가능성 있음) 혜택을 동시에 누릴 가능성이 있는 지금이 중소형아파트 저가 매입에 적절한 타이밍이라 판단된다.
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