[10월 주목해야 할 부동산-증시 변수] 회복? 침몰? 부동산 시장 뒤흔들 4대 쟁점
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작성자 짱알이 작성일13-10-04 17:10 조회22,177회 댓글115건관련링크
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2 공유형 모기지 인기 지속돼야 실수요도 살아나
3 금통위 금리동결로 하우스푸어 등 타격 줄여야
4 '가을 성수기' 전세난 지속땐 시장불안 더 가중
회복? 침몰? 부동산 시장 뒤흔들 4대 쟁점
10월에 주택시장 향방을 가늠할 수 있는 변수들이 줄줄이 대기해 최근 회복세에 추가 동력이 될지 관심이 모아지고 있다. 9월 30일 시장전문가들은 △국회 부동산 관련 법안처리 여부 △공유형 모기지상품 인기도 △금융통화위원회의 금리결정 △전세난 지속 여부 등을 10월에 주목해야 할 주택시장 핵심 변수로 꼽고 있다. 당장 1일 시작되는 공유형모기지 신청접수에 이어 10일에는 금통위의 금리결정이 예정돼 있고, 이달 말 가을 성수기 마무리로 전세난이 진정될지도 체크포인트다. 특히 국회에 계류 중인 부동산 관련 법안의 통과여부가 최대 관심사다. 전반적으로 시장의 불확실성이 제거되는 방향으로 분위기가 전개되면 회복세에 불을 지피는 모멘텀이 되겠지만, 반대의 경우 시장에 찬물을 끼얹는 악재가 될 수도 있다는 분석이다.
■체크포인트 4가지
가장 먼저 주목되는 것은 4·1대책과 8·28 전·월세대책 후속조치로 국회에 개정안이 상정된 다주택자양도세중과와 분양가상한제 폐지, 취득세 영구인하, 리모델링 수직증축 허용 등 굵직한 부동산 관련 법안들의 처리 여부다. 국회 문턱을 넘어서면 심리적 개선효과가 뚜렷해질 것으로 보여 회복세를 가속화시키는 분수령이 될 것으로 예상되고 있다. 그러나 정치권이 이해 대립의 벽을 넘지 못해 관련법안들이 장기표류한다면 시장의 불확실성은 가중돼 살아나던 수요심리가 급속히 위축될 것이란 의견이 지배적이다.
보통 매월 두번째 목요일에 열리는 금통위 기준금리 발표도 변수다. 지난 5월 금리를 0.25%포인트 인하한 이후 4개월 연속 동결해 금리인상 압박이 높아졌다는 분석이 나오고 있다. 기준금리가 인상되면 대출이자 부담으로 벼랑 끝에 몰린 하우스푸어들에게는 직격탄이다. 또한 대출부담이 커져 구매력은 저하되고, 실수요의 매매전환에도 걸림돌로 작용하는 만큼 부동산시장에는 악영향이 불가피해 보인다.
이달 말 사실상 가을 성수기가 마무리되는 데도 불구하고 전세난이 지속된다면 이 또한 시장에는 큰 부담이다. 매매전환에 일정 부분 일조는 하겠지만, 서민 주거안정의 불안정 요인으로 시장불안을 가중시킬 수 있다는 지적이다.
최저 1%대 초저금리로 내집을 마련할 수 있는 공유형모기지는 올해 3000가구로 공급가구 수가 제한적이지만, 사전상담에 수천명이 몰리는 등 시작 전부터 인기를 예고해 향후 실수요 매매전환의 촉매제가 될 것으로 전문가들은 내다보고 있다.
■최악의 시나리오는 피해야
당장 공유형모기지가 큰 인기를 얻고, 금리동결과 부동산 관련법안 국회통과, 전세난 진정 등이 순조롭게 이어진다면 시장회복세에 불을 지필 것으로 보인다. 하지만 정반대의 상황으로 시장에서 가장 꺼리는 최악의 시나리오가 현실화된다면 주택시장은 다시 안갯속에 갇혀 정부의 추가대책 압력도 커질 전망이다.
우리투자증권 김규정 부동산팀장은 "국회 통과만 이뤄져도 회복세가 무르익을 수 있다"면서 "기대와 달리 국회 통과는 지연되고, 금리인상과 전세난이 가중된다면 거래는 다시 얼어붙고, 반등하던 매매가도 일시적 조정국면에 들어갈 수 있다"고 예상했다.
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