전셋값 잡겠다더니 서민 잡는 '8·28대책'
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작성자 짱알이 작성일13-10-04 17:09 조회22,077회 댓글118건관련링크
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"과거 여러 차례 겪은 것처럼 시기를 놓쳐 서민들의 고통이 커지지 않도록 가을 이사철이 오기 전에 전·월세난 해결을 위한 선제적 조치를 강구해야 한다."
지난 8월20일 청와대 수석비서관회의에서 박근혜 대통령의 불호령이 떨어졌다. 단군 이래 최악의 상황으로 치닫고 있는 전·월세난 해결에 대한 강한 의지를 표명한 것으로 풀이된다.
대통령의 말 한마디에 그동안 이렇다할 돌파구를 찾지 못하고 전전긍긍하던 정부는 불과 9일 만에 뚝딱 '8·28 전·월세대책'을 발표했다. 그로부터 한달, 어찌된 영문인지 부동산시장의 분위기는 여전하다. 미친(?) 전셋값은 좀처럼 꺾일 줄 모른 채 상승세를 이어가고, 상승폭도 더욱 커졌다.
정부는 조금씩 거래가 늘면서 안정세를 찾아가는 중이라고 말하지만 대체 언제까지 기다리라는 걸까. 전·월셋값 안정을 기대하며 가슴 졸이고 있는 서민들의 '희망의 불씨'는 이제 꺼지기 일보직전이다.
◆8·28대책 발표 이후 시장 상황
매매시장은 전용면적 85㎡ 이하 중소형을 중심으로 조금씩 움직이는 모습이다. 미분양주택도 중소형을 중심으로 소진되고 있는 것으로 조사됐다.
국토교통부와 한국감정원에 따르면 지난 8월 한달간 주택거래량은 4만6586건으로 전월(3만9608건)보다 17.6% 증가했다. 또한 전국 아파트 매매가는 전주보다 0.07% 오르며 4주 연속 상승세를 이어가고 있다(9월26일 기준).
변선보 법무법인 한별 변호사(감정평가사)는 "어찌 됐든 정부에서 시장을 살리려는 의지를 내비치자 중소형 위주로 매매가 조금씩 이뤄지고 있는 것이 사실"이라며 "그동안 집을 살 수 있는 사람들이 집을 안사고 전세로 살다보니 전·월세난으로 이어진 것인데 매매가 살아난다는 것은 분명 희소식"이라고 설명했다.
하지만 전셋값의 상승은 계속되고 있다. 8·28대책의 주요 목표였던 전·월세시장의 안정은 안타깝게도 아직 나타나지 않고 있다.
국토부가 공개한 자료에 따르면 8월 전·월세 거래는 전국 10만7000건으로 집계됐다. 이는 전년 동월대비 1.4% 증가한 것이고, 전월대비 1.2% 감소한 것이다. 전·월세거래량은 지난해 10월 이후 전년 동월대비 증가세가 지속되는 추세다. 서울 강남(은마), 송파(리센츠), 경기 성남 분당(이지더원), 세종(푸르지오) 등 주요 아파트단지들의 순수전세(월세 제외) 실거래가도 상승한 것으로 나타났다. 한국감정원도 전국 아파트 전셋값이 57주째 오름세를 이어가고 있다고 밝혔다.
◆방향 제대로 잡았나
8·28대책의 골자는 매매시장을 활성화시켜 전·월세시장의 안정화를 꾀한다는 것. 일단 틀린 말은 아니다.
실제로 전·월세에 눌러 앉는 수요가 많다보니 전세나 월세는 매물품귀현상이 계속되며 잇따라 가격이 오르고 있다. A공인중개사사무소 관계자는 "요즘에는 시장에 나오기도 전에 재계약이 되는 등 새로운 전·월세 물건을 찾아보기가 쉽지 않다"며 "상황이 이렇다 보니 자연스럽게 가격은 오를 수밖에 없다"고 전했다.
전문가들은 최근 2~3년간 주택가격 하락이 계속되면서 주택 구매욕구가 상실됨에 따라 매매시장의 침체도 장기화된 것이라고 입을 모은다. 따라서 거래가 이뤄지기 시작하면 전·월세 수요 중에도 매매로 이동하는 수요가 증가할 것이라는 분석이다.
8·28대책 가운데 매매수요를 늘리기 위한 주요 내용으로는 ▲취득세 영구인하 ▲저리의 모기지 지원 ▲근로자서민 구입자금 지원 확대 등을 꼽을 수 있다. 하지만 이것 만으로는 거래시장을 활성화시키기에 부족하다는 것이 전문가들의 중론이다.
권일 닥터아파트 리서치팀장은 "8·28대책이 실효성을 거두기 위해선 지난 4·1대책 때 나왔던 다주택자 양도세 중과 폐지, 수직증축리모델링 허용, 분양가상한제 신축 적용 등 국회 계류 중인 법안의 통과가 함께 이뤄져야 한다"고 지적했다.
물론 8·28대책도 여야합의가 전제돼야 한다. 특히 취득세 인하의 경우 지자체 등의 반대여론이 만만찮은 상황이다.
윤상필 도시환경문제연구소 연구실장은 "앞뒤 보지 않고 취득세 인하를 내세우기보다는 부족한 세금에 대한 정부지원이 면밀히 검토돼야 한다"며 "당론에 따른 정치적인 견해로만 볼 것이 아니라 시장을 살릴 수 있는 현실적인 대안마련에 정치권도 신경을 써야 한다"고 지적했다.
◆지방세 세수확보가 문제…법안 통과시 거래 늘 듯
앞서 언급했듯 취득세 영구인하에 있어 지방세 세수확보는 극복해야할 난관이다. 하지만 법안이 통과된다면 거래는 일단 증가할 것으로 예상된다.
이에 대해 변선보 변호사는 "지난 6월 말 취득세감면 혜택 종료 이후 거래절벽을 경험하기도 했지만 취득세 영구감면도 단기적으로는 거래 증가를 가져올 수 있을 것으로 보인다"면서 "다만 지난 4·1대책 수준으로 취득세 인하 지원 범위를 확대하는 것이 더 큰 효과적이지 않을까 싶다"고 말했다.
8·28대책을 통해 새롭게 제시된 공유형 모기지도 주목받고 있다. 생애 첫 주택구입자에게 연 1%대의 초저금리 장기대출을 지원한다는 것인데 이는 사실상 마이너스금리로 볼 수 있다.
공유형 모기지는 '수익공유형'과 '손익공유형'으로 구분된다. 수익공유형 모기지는 집값의 70%까지 연 1%의 금리로 지원해준 뒤 시세차익의 최대 5%를 국민주택기금이 다시 가져가는 구조다. 반면 손익공유형 모기지는 주택 매각 및 대출 만기 시 모든 수익·손해를 주택기금과 공유하는 구조다.
하지만 우려의 목소리도 있다. 권일 팀장은 "상당히 파격적이긴 하지만 일단 연내에 3000호를 시범 운영한다는 점에서 공유형모기지가 전·월세 가격 안정에 미치는 영향은 미미할 전망"이라며 "또한 1%대의 저금리라고 해도 자기 자금에 따라 대출금액이 많아지면 이 또한 부담이 될 수 있는 만큼 신청자들은 적절한 대출금액을 정하는 것이 바람직하다"고 조언했다.
그는 이어 "이밖에 주택구입자금 지원은 생애최초주택구입자뿐 아니라 과거 주택보유 경험이 있지만 취득일 현재 무주택자인 경우에도 지원이 이뤄져야 한다"고 덧붙였다.
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